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By Gwen Holdman
The 2008 Iditarod has taken an interesting turn, and the gambles mushers have made in the past day and a half will soon begin to pay off for some, and result in wasted time for others.
The teams travelling to Cripple last night took much, much longer than expected. Apparently there was heavy, wet snow in addition to the punchy trail conditions from previous snowfalls. It made for a wet, soggy, sloggy, and probably all around miserable night.
Times ranged from Buser (11:10) to Gebhardt (17:38). Gebhardt took some rest on the trail, according to John Little about 3 hours. And he did not stop in Ophir, so tack another 2-3 hours onto his run time. Ouch.
The question is really this: did these teams who travelled overnight pack down the trail to give the teams behind a much faster trip over? Or are the conditions going to stay about the same and the teams who did the run in the cooler nighttime hours going to have the advantage over those that are following today in the heat?
We’ll know when Jeff, Kjetil, Lance, Hans, Rick, and the others coming off their 24 hour layovers get to Cripple. If their times, with fresh teams, are not significantly faster than the teams who did the run last night, that bodes poorly for them during the next half of the race.
The GPS trackers are coming in handy on this leg. They show Kjetil and Lance camped back on the trail a ways, about halfway between the checkpoints. They stopped around 1 p.m., which was probably a good move for them especially since they skipped Ophir. It looks like Kjetil was leading the pack which included Jeff and Lance (along with most like some ‘invisible’ teams not carrying trackers), and elected to pull over first. Lance followed suit 2 miles down the trail. Jeff must have known that at least Kjetil had camped, and passed him by. He is still moving enroute to Cripple and I think he will arrive around 5:30 p.m. That means he will have completed the run in about 10 hours, which is a significant improvement over last night’s times.
On the other hand, he is running a fresh team after coming off his 24 hour layover, so you would expect a certain burst of speed. This is the same move he made when he won the race 2 years ago. However, unlike 2 years ago, he has run longer in terms of time. From Takotna, his total run time will be about 12:30. That’s pretty bold coming off a 24 hour layover.
But from the speed he is currently moving at, it seems like he may have the possibility of pulling it off. In 2006, this same run took him 10 hours, and he rested for 8 hours in Cripple. Let’s assume he rests 9 hours this year. That would have him leaving around 2:30am – about 8 hours ahead of Ken if he decides to 24 in Cripple. So he has gained 2 hours, all based on a faster run time.
With Kjetil and Lance camped out, it is hard to know what they will do. They may elect to go through Cripple, but that could be risky. They are about 4-1/2 hours out of Cripple; the run to Ruby is 8 hours on a decent trail. It’s hard to think it will be much different this year from what they have already seen.
The next hard packed trail the mushers are likely to see is on the Yukon, once they leave Ruby. But even there the weather reports call for freezing rain and some basically miserable mushing conditions. They could camp after Cripple, but that will require hauling supplies that could bog them down more on this trail. I’m not crazy about either of these options.
Right now, all the teams who participated in the long midnight trek to Cripple seem content to take a good, long, and undoubtedly well-deserved rest.
But believe me, someone is going to cut short their break and head back out on the trail to Ruby without 24-ing. If for no other reason, because there is a $5000 prize and gourmet dinner waiting there for the first musher to the Yukon River.
Ken has been in Cripple for 9 hours, so if he is going to leave, he is going to do it soon. Otherwise, we’ll see him hunkered down until 10:30 a.m. tomorrow morning.
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